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18:30 - 19:30 21 November 2016

Professor William Goetzmann: crash expectations and the availability bias


The Building Centre | (link Map)
Store Street | London | WC1E 7BT | United Kingdom

Open to: Academic | Alumni | Public | Student
Admission: Free
Ticketing: Pre-booking essential

Professor William Goetzmann of the Yale School of Management presents his paper on 'Crash Expectations and the Availability Bias'.

Historical data suggest that the base rate for a severe, single-day stock market crash is relatively low. Surveys of individual and institutional investors, conducted regularly over a 26 year period in the United State, show that they assess the probability to be much higher. We examine the factors that influence investor responses and test the role of media influence. We find evidence consistent with an availability bias. Recent market decline and adverse market events made salient by the financial press are associated with higher subjective crash probabilities. No-market-related, rare disasters are also associated with higher subjective crash probabilities.

The seminar will begin at 6.30pm and will be followed by a drinks reception in the gallery of The Building Centre.


Donna Gage
+44 (0)20 3108 3304 | d.gage@ucl.ac.uk