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17:30 - 19:00 23 November 2017

The Political Futility of Counterinsurgency


Seminar room 105 | UCL – Institute of the Americas (link Map)
51 Gordon Square | London | WC1H 0PQ | United Kingdom

Open to: Alumni | Public | Academic | Student
Admission: Free
Ticketing: Pre-booking essential

Speaker information

Dr Manuel Vogt, Assistant Professor, UCL, Dr. Manuel Vogt is an assistant professor (lecturer) in the Department of Politics, School of Public Policy, at University College London (UCL). He is also an affiliated researcher in the R4D project 'Ethnic Power Relations and Conflict in Fragile States,' funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF) and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). He received his Ph.D. in political science from ETH Zürich and was subsequently a visiting postdoctoral research associate at Princeton University. His research and teaching interests stand at the intersection of international relations and comparative politics, with a particular focus on contentious politics in developing countries. He is most interested in four broad relate

What are the long-term political consequences of counterinsurgent violence? An emerging literature analyzes the socio-political consequences of civil war. Yet, while the bulk of this research focuses on individual-level effects, we still have little knowledge about how these results aggregate up to collective outcomes. This study analyzes the electoral consequences of the genocidal counterinsurgency in Guatemala’s three-decades long civil war (1966-96). Previous studies claimed that the violence has drawn the affected indigenous communities away from leftist parties into the fold of neo-authoritarian clientelism. We use data from the Historical Clarification Commission (CEH) on massacres and arbitrary executions carried out by the state during the civil war, as well as electoral data at the municipal level, to analyze the impact of counterinsurgency violence on the post-conflict electoral support for leftist parties in a cross-section of all Guatemalan municipalities.


Oscar Martinez
+44 (0)2031089721 | ucl-ia@ucl.ac.uk


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